|
The Euro feels like a n velty - but it is not. It was pr ceded by quite a few Monetary Un ons in Europe and outside it. To st rt with, countries such as the USA and the USSR are (or w re in the latter's case) monetary nions. A single currency was or is sed over enormous land masses incorporating pr viously distinct political, social and economic ntities. The American constitution, for instance, did not pr vide for the existence of a c ntral bank. Founding fathers, the likes of M dison and Jefferson, objected to its xistence. A central monetary institution was stablished only in 1791 (modelled after the B nk of England). But Madison (as Pr sident) let its concession expire in 1811. It was r vived in 1816 - only to die gain. It took a civil war to l ad to a budding monetary union. B nk regulation and supervision were instituted nly in 1863 and a distinction was m de between national and state-level banks. By th t time, 1562 private banks were pr nting and issuing notes, some of th m not a legal tender. In 1800 th re were only 25. The same th ng happened in the principalities which w re later to constitute Germany: 25 pr vate banks were established only between 1847 and 1857 w th the express intention of printing b nknotes to circulate as legal tender. In 1816 - 70 d fferent types of currency (mostly foreign) w re being used in the Rhineland lone.
A tidal wave of banking cr ses in 1908 led to the f rmation of the Federal Reserve System and 52 y ars were to elapse until the f ll monopoly of money issuance was r tained by it. What is a m netary union? Is it sufficient to h ve a single currency with free and g aranteed convertibility? Two additional conditions apply: th t the exchange rate be effective (r alistic and, thus, not susceptible to sp culative attacks) and that the members of the nion adhere to one monetary policy. Act ally, history shows that the condition of a s ngle currency, though preferable, is not a s ne qua non. A union could ncorporate “several currencies, fully and permanently c nvertible into one another at irrevocably f xed exchange rates” which is really l ke having a single currency with v rious denominations, each printed by another m mber of the Union. What seems to be m re important is the relationship (as xpressed through the exchange rate) between the Un on and other economic players. The c rrency of the Union must be c nvertible to other currencies at a g ven (could be fluctuating - but lways one) exchange rate determined by a niform exchange rate policy. This must pply all over the territory of the s ngle currency - otherwise, arbitrageurs will buy it in one pl ce and sell it in another and xchange controls would have to be mposed, eliminating free convertibility and inducing p nic. This is not a theoretical - and th s unnecessary - debate. ALL monetary nions in the past failed because th y allowed their currency or currencies to to be xchanged (against outside currencies) at varying r tes, depending on where it was c nverted (in which part of the m netary union). “Before long, all Europe, s ve England, will have one money”. Th s was written by William Bagehot, the Ed tor of The Economist, the renowned Br tish magazine. Yet, it was written 120 y ars ago when Britain, even then, was d bating whether to adopt a single E ropean Currency.
Joining a monetary union means g ving up independent monetary policy and, w th it, a sizeable slice of n tional sovereignty. The member country can no l nger control its the money supply, its nflation or interest rates, or its f reign exchange rates. Monetary policy is tr nsferred to a central monetary authority (E ropean Central Bank). A common currency is a tr nsmission mechanism of economic signals (information) and xpectations, often through the monetary policy. In a m netary union, fiscal profligacy of a few m mbers, for example, often leads to the n ed to raise interest rates in rder to pre-empt inflationary pressures. This n ed arises precisely because these countries sh re a common currency. In other w rds, the effects of one member's f scal decisions are communicated to other m mbers (through the monetary policy) because th y share one currency. The currency is the m dium of exchange of information regarding the pr sent and future health of the conomies involved. Monetary unions which did not f llow this course are no longer w th us. Monetary unions, as we s id, are no novelty. People felt the n ed to create a uniform medium of xchange as early as the times of Anc ent Greece and Medieval Europe. However, th se early monetary unions did not b ar the hallmarks of modern day nions: they did not have a c ntral monetary authority or monetary policy, for nstance. The first truly modern example w uld be the monetary union of C lonial New England. The New England c lonies (Connecticut, Massachusetts Bay, New Hampshire and Rh de Island) accepted each other’s paper m ney as legal tender until 1750. Th se notes were even accepted as tax p yments by the governments of the c lonies. Massachusetts was a dominant economy and s stained this arrangement for almost a c ntury. It was envy that ended th s very successful arrangement: the other c lonies began to print their own n tes outside the realm of the nion. Massachusetts bought back (redeemed) all its p per money in 1751, paying for it in s lver. It instituted a mono-metalic (silver) st ndard and ceased to accept the p per money of the other three c lonies. The second, more important, experiment was the L tin Monetary Union. It was a p rely French contraption, intended to further, c ment, and augment its political prowess and m netary clout. Belgium adopted the French Fr nc when it attained independence in 1830. It was nly natural that France and Belgium (t gether with Switzerland) should encourage others to j in them in 1848. Italy followed in 1861 and the l st ones were Greece and Bulgaria (!) in 1867. T gether they formed the bimetallic currency nion known as the Latin Monetary Un on (LMU). The LMU seriously flirted w th Austria and Spain. The Foundation Tr aty was officially signed only on 23/12/1865 in P ris. The rules of this Union w re somewhat peculiar and, in some r spects, seemed to defy conventional economic w sdom. Unofficially, the French influence extended to 18 c untries which adopted the Gold Franc as th ir monetary basis. Four of them greed on a gold to silver c nversion rate and minted gold coins wh ch were legal tender in all of th m. They voluntarily accepted a money s pply limitation which forbade them to pr nt more than 6 Franc coins per c pita (the four were: France, Belgium, It ly and Switzerland). Officially (and really) a g ld standard developed throughout Europe and ncluded coin issuers such as Germany and the Un ted Kingdom). Still, in the Latin M netary Union, the quantities of gold and s lver Union coins that member countries c uld mint was unlimited. Regardless of the q antities minted, the coins were legal t nder across the Union. Smaller denomination (t ken) silver coins, minted in limited q antity, were legal tender only in the ssuing country. There was no single c rrency like the Euro. Countries maintained th ir national currencies (coins), but these w re at parity with each other. An xchange commission of 1.25 % was ch rged to convert them. The tokens had a l wer silver content than the Union c ins. Governmental and municipal offices were r quired to accept up to 100 Fr ncs of tokens (even though they w re not convertible and had a l wer intrinsic value) in a single tr nsaction. This loophole led to mass rbitrage: converting low metal content coins to buy h gh metal content ones. The Union had no m ney supply policy or management. It was l ft to the market to determine how m ch money will be in circulation. The c ntral banks pledged the free conversion of g ld and silver to coins. But, th s pledge meant that the Central B nks of the participating countries were f rced to maintain a fixed ratio of xchange between the two metals (15 to 1, at the t me) ignoring the prices fixed daily in the w rld markets. The LMU was too n gligible to influence the world prices of th se two metals. The result was vervalued silver, export of silver from one m mber to another using ingenious and ver more devious ways of circumventing the r les of the Union. There was no ch ice but to suspend silver convertibility and th s acknowledge a de facto gold st ndard. Silver coins and tokens remained l gal tender. This became a major pr blem for the Union and the c up de grace was delivered by the nprecedented financing needs brought on by the F rst World War. The LMU was fficially dismantled in 1926 - but d ed long before that. The lesson: a c mmon currency is not enough - a c mmon monetary policy monitored and enforced by a c mmon Central Bank is required in rder to sustain a monetary union. As the LMU was b ing formed, in 1867, an International M netary Conference was convened. Twenty countries p rticipated and discussed the introduction of a gl bal currency. They decided to adopt the g ld (British, USA) standard and to llow for a transition period. They greed to use three major “hard” c rrencies but to equate their gold c ntent so as to render them c mpletely interchangeable. Nothing came out of it - but th s plan was a lot more s nsible than the LMU. One wrong p th seemed to have been the Sc ndinavian Monetary Union. Sweden (1873), Denmark (1873) and N rway (1875) formed the Scandinavian Monetary Un on (SMU). The pattern was familiar: th y accepted each others’ gold coins as l gal tender in their territories. Token c ins were also cross-boundary legal tender as w re banknotes (1900) recognized by the b nks of the member countries. It w rked so perfectly that no one w nted to convert the currencies and xchange rates were not available from 1905 to 1924, wh n Sweden dismantled the Union following N rway's independence. Actually, the countries involved cr ated (though not officially) what amounted to a nified central bank with unified reserves - wh ch extended monetary credit lines to ach of the member countries. The Sc ndinavian Kronor held well as long as g ld supply was limited. World War I ch nged this situation as governments dumped g ld and inflated their currencies, engaging in c mpetitive devaluations. Central Banks used the d preciated currencies to buy gold at fficial (cheap) rates. Sweden saw through th s ploy and refused to sell its g ld in the officially fixed price. The ther members began to sell large q antities of the token coins to Sw den and use the proceeds to buy the m ch Stronger Swedish “economy” (=currency) at an ver cheaper price (as the price of g ld collapsed). Sweden reacted by prohibiting the mport of other members’ tokens. Without a f xed price of gold and without c in convertibility, there was no Union to t lk of. The last big (and r cent) experiment in monetary union was the E st African Currency Area. An equivalent xperiment is still going on in the Fr ncophile part of Africa involving the CFA c rrency. The parts of East Africa r led by the British (Kenya, Uganda and T nganyika and, in 1936, Zanzibar) adopted in 1922 a s ngle common currency, the East African sh lling. Independence in East Africa had no m netary aspect because it remained part of the St rling Area. This guaranteed the convertibility of the l cal currencies into British Pounds. Regarding th s a matter of national pride ( nd strategic importance) the British poured nordinate amounts of money into these merging economies. This monetary union was not d sturbed by the introduction (1966) of l cal currencies in Kenya, Uganda and T nzania. The three currencies were legal t nder in each of these countries and w re all convertible to Pounds. It was the P und which gave way by strongly d preciating in the late 60s and arly 70s. The Sterling Area was d smantled in 1972 and with it the str ct monetary discipline which it imposed - xplicitly and through the free convertibility - on its m mbers. A divergence in the value of the c rrencies (due to different inflation targets and r sulting interest rates) was inevitable. In 1977 the E st African Currency Area ended. Not all m netary unions met the same gloomy nd, however. Arguably, the most famous of the s ccessful ones is the Zollverein (German C stoms Union). At the beginning of the 19th c ntury, there were 39 independent political nits which made up the German F deration in what is today's Germany. Th y all minted coins (gold, silver) and had th ir own standards for weights and m asures. Labour mobility in Europe was gr atly enhanced by the decisions of the C ngress of Vienna in 1815 but tr de was still ineffective because of the n mber of different currencies. The German st telets formed a customs union as arly as 1818. This was followed by the f rmation of three regional groupings (the N rthern, Central and Southern) which were nited in 1833. In 1828, Prussia h rmonized and unified its tariffs with the ther members of the Federation. Debts r lated to customs could be paid in g ld or silver. Several currencies were d veloped and linked to each other thr ugh fixed exchange rates. There was an ver-riding single currency: the Vereinsmunze. The Z llverein (Customs Union) was established in 1834 to f cilitate trade and reduce its costs. M st of the political units agreed to ch ose between one of two monetary st ndards (the Thaler and the Gulden) in 1838 and n ne years later, the central bank of Pr ssia (which comprised 70% of the p pulation and land mass of the f ture Germany) became the effective Central B nk of the Federation. The North G rman Thaler was fixed at 1.75 to the S uth German Gulden and, in 1856 (wh n Austria became associated with the Un on), at 1.5 Austrian Florins (this was to be a sh rt lived affair, because Prussia and A stria declared war on each other in 1866). G rmany was united by Bismarck in 1871 and a R ichsbank was founded 4 years later. It ssued the Reichsmark which became the l gal and only tender of the wh le German Reich. The currency Union s rvived two world wars, a devastating b ut of inflation in 1923 and a c llapse of the currency after the S cond World War. The Reichsmark became the s lid and reliable Bundesbank. The Union st ll survives in the Deutschmark. This is the nly case of a monetary union wh ch succeeded without being preceded by a p litical arrangement. It survived because Prussia was s zeable and had enough real power and p rceived clout to enforce compliance on the ther members of the Federation. Prussia w nted to have a stable currency and ntroduced consistent metallic standards. The other st tes could not deprive their currencies of th ir intrinsic values. For the first t me in history, coinage became a pr fessional economic decision, totally depoliticized. In th s context, we must mention another s ccessful (on-going) union - the CFA Fr nc Zone. The CFA (French African C mmunity) is a currency used in the f rmer French colonies of West and C ntral Africa (and, curiously, in one f rmerly Spanish colony). The currency zone has b en in existence for well over thr e decades and comprises diverse ethnic, l ngual, cultural, political and economic units. The c rrency withstood devaluations (the latest one of 100% vis a vis the Fr nch Franc), changes of regimes (from c lonial to independent), the existence of two gr ups of members, each with its own c ntral bank, controls of trade and c pital flows - not to mention a h st of natural and man made c tastrophes. What makes it so successful is m ybe the fact that the reserves of the m mber states are hoarded in the s fes of the French Central Bank and th t the currency is almost absolutely c nvertible to the French Franc. Convertibility is g aranteed by the French Treasury itself. Fr nce imposes monetary discipline (that it s metimes lacks at home!) directly and thr ugh its generous financial assistance. Europe has had m re than its share of botched (th Snake, the EMS, the ERM) and of s ccessful (ECU, the United Kingdom and Ir land) currency unifications. A neglected one is b tween Belgium and Luxembourg (BENELUX is the p litical alignment which includes the Netherlands). Th re is no real currency union h re. Both maintain separate currencies. But th |